Will We Hit Bottom in 2011?

I just read an article in Inman News about a report put out by Altos Research.  Altos Research is a real estate data company and their prediction is that we should hit bottom in real estate pricing in 2011.

They feel we'll see our normal surge in the upcoming Spring selling season, but it won't mean prices will necessarily escalate.  In most areas the Valley, prices have been declining since 2005.  The spike in sales that usually occurs during our best months does not necessarily bring about price increases, just a clearing of inventory.

We will still have a glut of foreclosures and short sales

In my opinion, until the amount of distressed properties slows down there is going to be more inventory than available buyers.  Distressed properties hamper regular sales of Scottsdale real estate and bring down prices.

Interest rates are already going up, and when interest rates are higher prices might need to come down, since that will limit buyer qualifications.  When fewer buyers can get qualified in certain price ranges, then there are even fewer ready, willing, and able buyers compared to the number of Scottsdale homes available.

Pricing is the most important factor in selling a home in today's market

No amount of marketing can sell an overpriced home in this kind of market.  Even in the seller's boom, there were some Scottsdale homes that didn't sell.  Hard to believe, but buyers will only pay what a home is worth.  When there is financing involved, there will also be an appraisal.

There are certainly other factors involved such as property condition and location, but that's where the price needs to be set.  What I see happening with many sellers is that on paper their property looks like it should be a certain value, but the homes used to create that value were much more updated and/or upgraded.  Your current competition is very important now, too.  If you don't price correctly, you'll simply help to sell the other similar properties that show better at the same price point.

When will we recover?

Altos Research feels that recovery could begin in another year (although it is stated somewhere from 2012-2014).  However, you shouldn't expect the word recovery to mean higher prices.  They feel prices will stagnate instead of continually dropping, and it will stabilize for quite some time before prices will appreciate.

When unemployment improves, the market will improve.  This will not happen quickly and it will be a slow ride to improvement in the Scottsdale real estate sector.

For sellers waiting for the market to improve (and their bottom line), the wait will probably be years from now.  If you must sell you have to face the reality of the market we're in today.  And consider that the price of the Scottsdale home you end up buying will be facing the same declining price that you might endure on your property.

If you're interested in Scottsdale homes for sale or any area of the valley that we work in (or even if we don't - we have referral agents), give Judy Orr a call at 480-877-1549 or use the Contact Form.  Get in before interest rates go even higher!