Is the Media Creating This Declining Market?

I made a post on Active Rain (a popular real estate blogging site with agents from all over the world) about Scottsdale homes for sale - current supply and demand.  I put the following chart on that post showing factual information from April of last year to April of 2009.  I did not make this chart myself - I copied it from a program that I utilize that gets the data from our MLS (multiple listing service).  It is not easy to read here since I had to shrink it down to fit in this blog.  But even without reading the numbers, you can see how many homes are up for sale (red) compared to those with contracts (blue) or that have already sold and closed (green).  As of today, there are 332 Scottsdale homes for sale and this chart was compiled a few days back so it's very close.

If you are a home seller today the above Supply and Demand Chart for single-family Scottsdale homes for sale will tell you that it certainly is a Buyer's Market and there is a very large inventory compared to the amount of sold and closed listings and those currently under contract.  Yet one gentleman responded to the chart by saying the media is concocting this bad market and real estate agents are using that to get sellers to underprice their homes so the agents can make a quick buck.

I didn't take his first comment personally as I thought he was just ranting about our recession and the media and a few bad agents.  But then he admitted that he did not agree with my findings.  He did not agree with the facts!

I did find out that he was disgruntled as an agent knocked on his door to see if he was interested in selling his Scottsdadle home (supposedly she had a buyer interested in his type of home).  I guess she piqued his interest enough to ask her what she felt his home was worth and he was offended by her answer.  Because of that exchange, he feels we're all trying to dupe sellers and I was misinterpreting the above chart.

OK, this is a free world and if you have factual data right in front of your eyes and you don't want to believe it as the truth, then good luck with that.  That man has his head in the sand and I'm sure there are others like him.

In fact, I know there are.  One of my sellers, who was being a stickler with his list price, told me something similar.  He stated that this so-called recession isn't changing his lifestyle and probably isn't changing mine (which isn't true as my sales are down compared to last year and before).  I'd like these guys to talk with my best friend who just lost her job and another seller that is selling because she lost hers, too.  Oh, their lives are certainly changing.

Thank goodness for those not hurt by this recession.  Even the wealthy have lost if they had money in the stock market.  But there are those that think this recession talk is all a lie.  Some feel the lie is created by the media and that greedy real estate agents are getting rich quick by convincing innocent sellers to sell their properties for less than they are worth.  That ain't happening, folks.

I have a difficult time trying to convince sellers of true market value, forget about listing it under that.  Many sellers don't want to list at market value.  Short sales and foreclosures are setting market value since in many areas that is all that is selling.  Appraisers use fresh comparables of sold and closed listings to determine value.  If the only properties that have sold in the past 3-6 months are foreclosures, then guess what market value is based on?

Buyers determine the market and appraisers make sure the properties are worth what the buyers are paying for them.  In fact, my recent article about the new HVCC Appraisal Agreement explains how the appraisal rules are changing, which can also affect value.

I consider myself a very truthful person.  I have never, in 26 years, tried to get a seller to underprice their home.  I also consider myself a realist and do not like to sugarcoat facts.  And no matter how dire the outlook might be, I still try to stay optimistic.  Keep in mind, since we get paid on commission, the less we sell a home for, the less we earn.  So why would we want these low prices?

But facts don't lie and if that chart is telling the true story about Scottsdale real estate, then I think we're still in for a ride until the market stabilizes.  How do you read it?

If you're interested in Scottsdale real estate give me a call at 480-877-1549 or use my contact form. That current inventory of 332 homes for sale start at $94,900 up to $2,395,000, so there's something for everyone!